Avoiding GOP Immigration Reform Self-Sabotage, Pt. 7: The Gateway Issue

By Stanley Renshon on June 3, 2014

Even those Republicans interested in real immigration reform who are not panicked by wild, non-contextualized Democratic analysis face a difficult question: What difference will it make to Republican attempts to woo Hispanics?

Answers range from not much to possibly some.

This is the so-called "gateway" question and it asks: Can the GOP successfully get Hispanics to listen to, and support, their policy pitches if they don't first pass immigration legislation?

On one side of this debate are an array of GOP "notables" who argue that, yes, the GOP must pass immigration legislation if they are to get Hispanics to listen to their ideas of lower taxes, smaller government, and more recently an "opportunity agenda". In the words of one of this position's chief proponents, Alfonso Aguilar, the executive director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, and a former Director of a Citizenship and Immigration Services office during the G.W. Bush administration, "Latino voters are the Reagan Democrats of today."

Almost anything is possible, but his confident assertion seems unlikely, especially if a great deal of accurate survey research and data are to be believed.

There is substantial evidence that Hispanics are not as culturally conservative as they have been portrayed. For example, they support abortion and believe that homosexuality should be accepted by society. They support gay marriage at a higher level than the general population.

The Daily Kos headline, "For the millionth time, no, Latinos are not socially conservative", just might have a point.

Moreover, aside from "cultural values", Hispanics don't look very Republican on other basic political issues. For example, "The majority (56 percent) of Hispanic registered voters in the United States believe the government should 'do more to solve our country's problems'. This is more than the 37 percent of all American registered voters who say the same. Hispanic voters born outside the United States are even more likely to favor government intervention than those born in the United States."

Asked "Would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services or a bigger government providing more services?" 75 percent of Hispanics chose "bigger government providing more services". That compares with 41 percent of the general population who chose that option.

There may be some solace for the Hispanics who are the next Reagan Republicans in the finding that support for bigger government declines across Hispanic generations; 81 percent of the first generation favors it; 72 percent of the second generation favors it, and 58 percent of the third generation favors it.

However, 58 percent is a still a substantial majority, and that is after three generations of living in America.

The modest generational declines in support for big government are not going to be very helpful when one considers that people from Spanish-speaking backgrounds make up a substantial portion of legal immigration, and the overwhelming majority of illegal aliens. Any legalization program would add substantially to the number of those who support these typically non-Republican views of wanting larger government.

That seems like an insoluble dilemma until you begin to consider that support for bigger government may, in fact, be a call for help, as economic circumstances make it hard to reach and sustain a middle-class life. If that is true, Hispanics will not be the only economic, racial, or ethnic group in American life calling for the government to do more to help them gain and maintain a middle-class life.

Liberals have always believed that more government is better; conservatives that less government is better. But what if neither answer fits our circumstances?

What if prudent financial stewardship and policy effectiveness rather than size are the best metrics? Hispanics would then be like the rest of middle-class-aspiring Americans, and Republicans might just be successful in figuring out ways to appeal to them.

Next: Avoiding GOP Immigration Reform Self-Sabotage, Pt. 8: The Gateway Issue Redux