Of all the groups and ideas that are most dangerous to real immigration reform, there is none in a better position to do terrible damage than Republicans themselves. And among Republicans there are no groups or leaders more poised at the precipice of a historic mistake than those who are panicked by demographic projections or those who want some concrete marker to demonstrate their policy empathy with Hispanics by signing on to the massive changes in immigration numbers and procedures contained in the Democratic Party's legislation.
The first group is unnerved by projected numbers of Hispanics reaching voting age and able to vote. The conventional wisdom on these numbers and their meaning is found in many places, among them the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza's articles on the subject, like "Republicans have a major demographic problem. And it's only going to get worse", which lays out the reasons that have led some Republicans to panic:
The math isn't complicated. Winning 27 percent of the Hispanic vote and 6 percent of the African American vote — as Romney did in 2012 — makes it hard to win a majority of the overall vote when those groups represent 10 percent and 13 percent of the electorate, respectively. If Hispanics grow to 20 percent of the electorate by 2024 or 2028 and the Republican presidential nominee performs roughly equivalent to Romney's 2012 showing, it will be impossible — or damn close to impossible — for that GOP nominee to win a national majority.
But wait! Just three weeks later the very same Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post reported on a new analysis by the Pew Foundation that casts doubt on this dire conventional wisdom.
[W]hile Republicans still need to be concerned about their struggles among Hispanics, the problem — at least in the near term — may be less dire than it seems. Why? Because the vast majority of the growth in the immigrant population is happening in a [relatively] static number of states — states that, by and large, are already safely in Democratic hands.
Cillizza's major takeaway? "In short, Republicans still need to find a way into the Hispanic community. But, in the near term, the static nature of the states in which the immigrant population resides (and is growing) means that the GOP's demographic problems may not be as severe as previously imagined."
There is absolutely no doubt that Republicans "need to find a way into the Hispanic community", and the Asian, youth, and unmarried women's communities as well. But they had better think very carefully about how they approach doing so.
The major approach of Republicans who share the demographic panic is to do something, anything, now. Whether it is supporting the Democratic bill, trying to bootleg a smaller amnesty in the defense authorization bill, waiting until after the primaries are over this summer, or until the lame-duck session begins, they all share the narrow vision and self-defeating rush to get something, anything, done.
It is a recipe for poor judgment, poor decisions, and poor policy.
And, as Pew numbers and Cillizza's analysis make clear, it is wholly unnecessary.
Next: Avoiding GOP Immigration Reform Self-Sabotage, Pt 7: The Gateway Issue