bluff (bluf)
v. bluffed, bluff·ing, bluffs
v.tr.
1. To mislead or deceive.
2. To impress, deter, or intimidate by a false display of confidence.
3. Games To try to mislead (opponents) in a card game by heavy betting on a poor hand or by little or no betting on a good one.
Does President Obama really want to sign an immigration bill? Or does he really not mind if the effort fails so that he will have what some believe will be a potent issue to use against Republicans in the 2014 midterm congressional elections? As Chief Deputy Whip Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) phrased it, "The question is, how much energy does the White House put in to actually getting a remedy? Or do they want to keep the issue for 2014?"
There's evidence for both positions, but ultimately there are very good psychological and political reasons to believe that only one is right.
On one side, the Washington Post reports, "President Obama, now facing the consequences of automatic spending cuts and the complications they raise for his broader domestic agenda, is taking the most specific steps of his administration in an attempt to ensure the election of a Democratic-controlled Congress in two years."
The strategic thinking that develops out of this line of analysis is that any failure to pass the Senate's immigration bill that can be laid directly at the feet of Republicans will give the Democrats a potent issue to both motivate their base, as the Obama campaign did in 2012, and perhaps win over independents who highly value bipartisan "grand bargains".
On the other hand there is the question of the president's legacy.
The Washington Post's article outlining the president's congressional election efforts is titled "Stymied by a GOP House, Obama looks ahead to 2014 to cement his legacy", and the president's legacy is at the core of his calculations and of what he ultimately decides to do.
The strategic thinking that develops out of this line of analysis is also quite clear. The president's accomplishments during his time in office have been meager and do not yet look like the raw material of an outstanding legacy.
Yes, of course, Congress has passed bills during his time in office. And, yes, the president has had an impact both on domestic and foreign policy. But this is scant content for a glowing legacy, as that could be said of any modern president.
Worse, from the president's standpoint, his actual accomplishments have been meager.
Generally speaking, a president can secure his legacy in one of two ways: He can bend political circumstances in his direction through the force of his convictions, skills, and policies (Ronald Reagan is an obvious modern example). Or, a president can successfully navigate the political, social, and economic circumstances that define his time in office. Here the emphasis is not on "transformative presidential leadership" so much as a having a generally successful presidency.
President Obama's problem is that while he has from the first aspired to an historical legacy as a "transformative" leader, he stands in danger of being assessed, if his present record is not improved, as merely a mediocre one.
And there in lies the origin of the president's great immigration bluff.
Next: President Obama's Immigration Dilemma: Saving a Flailing Presidency
