Coverage of Five Years After NAFTA:

The North American Free Trade Agreement has done little in the past and will likely do little over the next two decades to stem the tide of immigration from Mexico, according to a study released today by the Center for Immigration Studies. The paper, authored by Robert Manning of Georgetown University, suggests that despite the predictions made by NAFTA's backers, "the reality has so far failed to match the promises of their political rhetoric." The five-year-old trade pact will figure prominently in the debate next year over granting normal trade relations to China on a permanent basis - a move that emanates directly from the recently concluded deal to bring that country into the World Trade Organization.

Manning pointed out that NAFTA has created plenty of jobs on both sides of the border. However, as consumer expectations have risen more slowly than wages, more - and not fewer - Mexicans have sought jobs in the United States. He said there are a number of other reasons why more migration seems inevitable, from fertility rates in rural Mexico to internal economic reforms there. He recommended more foreign investment in Mexico away from the border, better enforcement of Mexico's labor and environmental laws and shifting the resources of U.S. immigration control agencies to meet new patterns of immigration.