1. Sen. Reid files for cloture
2. GOP promises to be tough
3. Population estimate uncertain
4. CA politicians vague on issue
5. Activists push for TPS

1.
Reid files cloture as House, Senate poised to vote on DREAM Act
By Mike Lillis
The Hill (Washington, D.C.), December 6, 2010

Congress is poised to vote this week on contentious legislation carving a pathway to legal status for hundreds of thousands of undocumented students living in the United States.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Monday filed cloture on the DREAM Act, setting the stage for an upper-chamber vote as early as Wednesday morning. House Democrats, meanwhile, might vote on the measure even earlier the same day.

Because the bill has a much better chance of passing in the lower chamber, staging the House vote first would “give a little more push” to the Senate version, according to a Democratic aide familiar with the debate.

The measure is not expected to pass the upper chamber, where lawmakers shot down a similar measure in September and where 60 votes will be needed to defeat a Republican filibuster. But by insisting on the two separate votes this week, Democrats are hoping to draw a clear and very public distinction between themselves and Republicans on the topic of immigration reform — in part as a way to court the ever-growing voting bloc of Hispanic Americans.

“We are working to coordinate with the Senate to ensure the greatest likelihood of successfully getting a bill signed into law,” said a senior House Democratic aide.

The DREAM Act offers a pathway to permanent residency — and eventually citizenship — for illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children if they meet certain requirements. They must have been in the country for at least five years; have earned a high school diploma, or its equivalent; and enter an institution of higher education or the military.

Supporters say the bill would empower motivated young individuals to become more productive — and tax-paying — members of society. Opponents argue it rewards people who broke the law in entering the country.

Proponents of the bill got a boost last week when the Congressional Budget Office estimated the Senate version will cut deficit spending by $1.4 billion over the next decade. Beyond 2020, however, the CBO says the bill would begin to cost money, as beneficiaries begin to become citizens. The CBO estimated the bill would increase projected deficits by between $5 billion and $20 billion between 2021 and 2061.

The House bill has yet to be scored, though supporters are expecting similar figures to emerge.

Because $2.8 billion in savings is off-budget, House Democrats will need to come up with $1.4 billion in offsets to abide by their own pay-as-you-go rules. A House Democratic leadership aide said the offsets have not yet been determined.

Opponents of the bill have pounced on the CBO numbers, arguing the country can’t afford the new costs.

“The DREAM Act not only undermines economic opportunities for Americans, it also makes it less likely that either state governments or the federal government will bring their budgets into balance,” Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) wrote Monday in a FOXNews.com op-ed.
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http://thehill.com/homenews/house/132299-democrats-set-up-house-and-sena...

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2.
GOP rises, DREAM Act falters
By Scott Wong
Politico (Washington, D.C.), December 7, 2010

To see how dramatically the immigration debate has shifted, look no further than Orrin Hatch.

The Utah Republican was the chief sponsor of the DREAM Act when it was first introduced in the Senate in 2001 and, later, in 2003. But now, worried about a potential tea party challenge in 2012, Hatch is steering clear of the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act.

On Wednesday, immigrant advocates who have been engaged in this fight for nearly a decade will very likely see the DREAM Act sputter again with a feeble lame-duck vote. And with it, any chance for broader immigration reform may be dead for the foreseeable future — potentially for years.

Like most of his Republican colleagues, Hatch would like to see the Senate focus on the economy and not immigration. “Democrats know this won’t become law but are moving forward with this show vote to curry favor with a political constituency,” Hatch spokeswoman Antonia Ferrier said.

It’s a remarkable turnaround from four years ago, when a Republican president and a Republican Congress pushed to liberalize immigration and create a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. But chastened by a grass-roots movement against illegal immigration, Republicans taking control of the House are lurching in the opposite direction, drafting a series of border security and enforcement bills cracking down on illegal immigration for 2011.

“The next two years will be a very, very bleak period for immigration reform and for immigrants,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, which has been urging passage of the DREAM Act.

In January, Sharry added, Reps. Lamar Smith of Texas and Steve King of Iowa, the Republicans driving immigration policy in the House, “literally want to expel 11 million undocumented immigrants in our country, to make life so miserable they can’t get work, get an apartment, go to school or survive here, so they pick up and go home.”

When the Senate roll-call vote comes up Wednesday, there may be few, if any, GOP supporters, and even some politically vulnerable Democrats may vote against the bill, fearing a 2012 backlash.

“Emotions are running really high,” said Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Democrat up for reelection in two years who previously voted against the measure.

But the DREAM Act, denounced by critics as an amnesty plan, has received a strong endorsement from President Barack Obama and top administration officials. It would provide a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants brought to the country as children, provided they attend college or join the military for two years. To be eligible, immigrants must have entered the U.S. before age 16, must undergo a criminal background check and must have earned a high school or general equivalency diploma.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who owes his surprise win in large part to Hispanic supporters, filed a procedural motion Monday on the DREAM Act, setting up a key test vote in the Senate Wednesday. House aides said Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) could hold a vote in her chamber first to “add momentum for a Senate vote.”

But what should be a triumphant moment for the Hispanic community and immigrant advocates instead is likely to be a disappointing coda to a decadelong fight for immigration reform. In 2006, 73 senators, including 30 Republicans, voted for a sweeping immigration overhaul backed by President George W. Bush.
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1210/46052.html

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3.
Population estimates reflect immigration uncertainty
By Hope Yen
The Associated Press, December 7, 2010

The government provided new estimates Monday showing the U.S. population grew to somewhere between 306 million and 313 million over the last decade, acknowledging uncertainty due to rapid shifts in immigration.

The estimates, which are separate from the official 2010 census count, are based on a review of birth and death records as well as calculations of new immigrants as of April 1, 2010. Demographers say the range of numbers offers a rough guide to the official 2010 results that will be used to apportion House seats when they are released later this month.

The numbers show the nation's population ranged from 305.7 million to 307.4 million based on lower rates of immigration, which independent think tanks such as the Pew Hispanic Center have said dropped off sharply recently due to the souring U.S. economy.

A mid-range estimate – which in previous census reports have typically come within 1 to 2 percent of the final count – puts the number at 308.5 million. Census estimates based on assumptions of higher levels of immigration place the nation's population between 310 million and 312.7 million.

In 2000, the official census count was 281.4 million.
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http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/nation/stories/DN-censu...

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4.
Political will for immigration reform wavers
By Chris Collins
The Fresno Bee, December 4, 2010

Illegal immigration continues to be a divisive issue that sparks strong commentary and opinion -- but the Valley's federal legislators don't want to address it head-on.

The Bee, which last month published the seven-part "In Denial" series examining the conflicting policies and attitudes toward illegal immigration in the San Joaquin Valley, sent five congressional representatives in the region, as well as Rep.-elect Jeff Denham, a series of questions about their views on illegal immigration. Almost two weeks later, only two had responded. Their answers tended to be vague.

"Politicians want to preserve their flexibility," said Mark Krikorian, director of the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies, which favors stricter immigration enforcement policies. "Immigration is different from a lot of issues because it's not strictly a left-versus-right issue."

Republicans are torn between appeasing a hawkish voter base, which wants the government to crack down on illegal immigration, and the business lobby, which wants to let employers hire illegal immigrants because they will work for less pay, Krikorian said.

Democrats, meanwhile, traditionally advocate for immigrant-friendly reforms but also don't want to sound "too dovish" and lose the support of the average voter, he said.
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http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/12/04/2185737/valley-political-will-for-im...

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5.
Groups urge reprieve for migrants
Arizona Daily Star, December 7, 2010

It's a potentially explosive idea being circulated on petitions in Houston's Latino supermarkets, lobbied for in Chicago's Hispanic neighborhoods and now landing on the front pages of the Spanish-language press.

With more than 30,000 dead in the last four years from drug violence in Mexico, some immigrant advocates are starting to lobby the U.S. government to grant millions of illegal immigrants from Mexico "temporary protected status," or TPS, a kind of reprieve from deportation generally reserved for countries ravaged by natural disasters or destabilized by war.

"There is a big chance of getting kidnapped and killed over there right now. It is extremely, extremely violent," said Victor Ibarra, the president of the Houston advocacy organization Alianza Mexicana. "That is why we're asking for temporary protection."

Ibarra said volunteers had collected more than 1,000 signatures in support of TPS since starting a petition drive in Houston on Nov. 4.

He said 15 immigrants-rights organizations in Texas, including several in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, were planning to participate in the petition drive. Nationally, he said, he's been talking with organizations in California, Arizona and Chicago about making a more unified push for TPS.

But the idea, which would require the approval of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, is highly controversial and, many say, unlikely to happen anytime soon.

Matthew Chandler, a DHS spokesman, said DHS is not considering TPS for Mexican nationals.

"We continue to work with our Mexican partners to ensure the safety and security of communities on both sides of the border," Chandler said.

Mark Krikorian, executive director for the Center for Immigration Studies, an organization based in Washington, D.C., that advocates for stricter immigration controls, called the idea of TPS for Mexicans in the U.S. a "nightmare scenario."

"People have talked about it, the activist types, but I don't see that happening," he said. "Honestly, if the president actually did that, a sweeping TPS for Mexicans, I could see articles of impeachment being offered. That would be so beyond the pale that I just don't see any way that can happen."
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http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/article_4c4074e0-1570-5762-81a8-f...